Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 0.008836 0.009961 0.011177 0.012590 0.014187 0.015937 0.018001
2026-01-18 0.006950 0.008473 0.010255 0.012497 0.015244 0.018507 0.022686
2026-01-25 0.005910 0.007606 0.009702 0.012486 0.016099 0.020638 0.026795
2026-02-01 0.005101 0.006859 0.009130 0.012286 0.016574 0.022217 0.030241
2026-02-08 0.004578 0.006395 0.008833 0.012357 0.017341 0.024169 0.034288
2026-02-15 0.004103 0.005928 0.008463 0.012255 0.017815 0.025711 0.037856
2026-02-22 0.003817 0.005688 0.008370 0.012514 0.018793 0.028012 0.042689
2026-03-01 0.003396 0.005205 0.007873 0.012116 0.018742 0.028769 0.045241
2026-03-08 0.003078 0.004843 0.007516 0.011884 0.018901 0.029826 0.048310
2026-03-15 0.002782 0.004486 0.007132 0.011567 0.018883 0.030582 0.050935
2026-03-22 0.002677 0.004420 0.007194 0.011962 0.020033 0.033284 0.056972
2026-03-29 0.002550 0.004307 0.007168 0.012203 0.020940 0.035644 0.062624
2026-04-05 0.002437 0.004211 0.007167 0.012495 0.021970 0.038322 0.069121
2026-04-12 0.002267 0.004002 0.006957 0.012406 0.022329 0.039869 0.073744
2026-04-19 0.002126 0.003833 0.006802 0.012396 0.022819 0.041675 0.078987
2026-04-26 0.001971 0.003623 0.006555 0.012198 0.022941 0.042811 0.083053
2026-05-03 0.001868 0.003502 0.006460 0.012268 0.023567 0.044923 0.089177
2026-05-10 0.001751 0.003344 0.006282 0.012167 0.023850 0.046400 0.094164
2026-05-17 0.001691 0.003288 0.006291 0.012424 0.024851 0.049342 0.102372
2026-05-24 0.001555 0.003075 0.005983 0.012029 0.024514 0.049596 0.105021
2026-05-31 0.001449 0.002915 0.005766 0.011798 0.024489 0.050473 0.109049
2026-06-07 0.001343 0.002745 0.005517 0.011484 0.024262 0.050908 0.112153
2026-06-14 0.001320 0.002743 0.005605 0.011875 0.025560 0.054645 0.122870